The global physical copper market is weak

The global manufacturing slowdown is the key factor weighing on base metals, although copper has shown some resilience, but the weak midline pattern is difficult to change. The summer holiday season in the northern hemisphere added to the lethargy of an otherwise placid copper sheet market, with LME spot copper back at a discount, hit by weak consumption. While some macroeconomic improvement in the U.S. has boosted copper consumption in the U.S. market, it has struggled to offset the damage done to Europe's manufacturing sector by its debt problems, which have hit copper consumption in Europe. The characteristics of traditional manufacturing off-season also affect the development of China's manufacturing industry. This situation not only exists in copper pipe industry, in cable, plate and other industries also exist similar situation. The overall weakness of China's manufacturing industry makes the operating rate of the entire copper industry generally at a low level, which reflects the decline of the enthusiasm of the buyers of refined copper in the domestic refined copper market.

Although the purchasing enthusiasm of domestic copper downstream processing enterprises is not high, the refined copper market still maintains the premium price in most of the time, and the premium range is up to 650 yuan/ton. The premium pattern of domestic fine copper spot market is largely due to the reluctance to sell goods. As a result of the high price of scrap copper, scrap copper as the main raw material smelting enterprises increased losses, fine copper output was suppressed.

Period copper trend in the base metal relatively strong. From the relationship between Shanghai copper (54870,230.00,0.42%) positions and price trends, the rebound of copper prices is often accompanied by the reduction of positions, while the decline of copper prices is often accompanied by the increase of positions. From the perspective of position structure, the Shanghai copper market has been controlled by short forces for a long time, short regular cover makes the copper price in the current position continuously staged rebound market.

In addition to the capital level of short covering caused copper prices to fight against the fall, mining conditions are also an important factor in the strong copper price. In the absence of big macro news to guide the market, copper prices have seen a long period of volatility around $7500 / mt. At present, the market is generally looking to September and October, hoping that the "gold nine silver ten" season can get some positive policy coordination. However, it is difficult for China to loosen its real estate policy, and the process of structural adjustment will inevitably be accompanied by a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. The author believes that "gold nine silver ten" to copper price brought more limited role, the pattern of empty midline is difficult to failure. Midline slant empty pattern is difficult to failure.